Abstract: During the construction of double-track rectangular tunnel, the soil arching effect exerts a complex influence on the inter-tunnel soil interaction and ground disturbance mechanisms, which significantly restricts the accurate prediction of ground settlement. To address this issue, this study proposes a novel analytical method for predicting ground settlement of double-track rectangular tunnel, with explicit consideration of the soil arching effect. Firstly, a "multi-arch model" comprising an elastic arch and an inter-tunnel friction arch is established, and its corresponding stress evolution equation is derived. Secondly, a predictive model for ground settlement is developed by modifying the Loganathan formula using the theory of complex functions. Finally, the proposed method is validated by comparing its predictions with results from finite element models under various ratios of embedment depth to clear spacing (H/S), as well as with predictions from Peck's formula and field data from a case study of the Ningbo Metro Line 3. The results reveal that the shape of the ground settlement trough is intimately correlated with the H/S ratio: it exhibits a "V" shape when H/S≤1/3 or H/S>2, a "W" shape when 1/3<H/S≤1, and a "U" shape when 1<H/S≤2. The verification demonstrates that, in comparison with Peck's formula, the proposed method yields more accurate predictions across diverse scenarios, shows good agreement with field monitoring data, and is particularly effective in capturing the influence of the soil arching effect. This research can provide valuable theoretical references for the design and construction of urban double-track rectangular tunnel.