降雨诱发分散土边坡失稳破坏特性及预报研究

    Failure characteristics and prediction of dispersed soil slope induced by rainfall

    • 摘要: 由于分散土具有较高的水敏性导致其边坡易发生变形破坏,目前对分散土边坡的失稳破坏特性及预测预报缺乏总体认识。基于分形理论设计了6个模型试验,通过近景摄影测量技术等研究了分散土边坡破坏模式,并提出了一种适用于降雨诱发分散土边坡失稳时间预报模型。试验结果表明:当分维值较大时(2.7687~2.8234),以渐进式水力侵蚀破坏为主;当分维值较小时(2.4977~2.6879),以滑动型破坏为主;当分维值适中时(2.6879~2.7687),以浅表层滑动型破坏为主,兼具侵蚀和滑坡的共同特征。分散土边坡失稳特性分为渗流和分散解体(初始侵蚀)、流固共存(等速侵蚀)和近饱和滑动(加速侵蚀)三阶段。采用斜率模型并选取SRR作为预测指标,通过改进切线角模型确定预测区域,可预测降雨诱发的渐进式滑动型滑坡破坏时间。发现其滑坡破坏时间预测结果的均方根误差均值为7.68,相对误差均值为2.4%。该研究成果对于认识分散土边坡破坏特性具有重要意义,并为降雨诱发分散土滑坡的准确预报提供新模型。

       

      Abstract: Due to high water sensitivity of dispersed soil, the dispersed soil slope is prone to deformation and failure. At present, there is a lack of overall understanding of the failure characteristics and prediction of the dispersed soil slope. In this paper, six groups of model tests are designed based on fractal theory. The failure mode of dispersed soil slope is studied by close-range photogrammetry technology, and a failure time prediction model of rainfall-induced dispersed soil slope is proposed. The test results show that when the fractal dimension value is large (2.7687~2.8234), the progressive hydraulic erosion failure is dominant. When the fractal dimension value is small (2.4977~2.6879), it is dominated by sliding failure. When the fractal dimension value is moderate (2.6879~2.7687), it is dominated by shallow surface sliding failure, which has the common characteristics of erosion and landslides. The instability characteristics of dispersed soil slope are divided into three stages: seepage and dispersed disintegration (initial erosion), fluid-solid coexistence (constant velocity erosion) and near-saturated slide (accelerated erosion). In this paper, the slope model is used and SRR is selected as the prediction index. The prediction area is determined by improving the tangent angle model, which can predict the failure time of progressive-sliding type landslides induced by rainfall. In this paper, it is found that the mean Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of the prediction results of the failure time of the landslide is 7.68, and the mean Relative Error (RE) is 2.4%. The research results are of great significance for understanding the failure characteristics of dispersed soil slopes, and provide a new model for accurate prediction of rainfall-induced dispersed soil landslides.

       

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