ZHU Yan-zhi, CHEN Nan. Dynamic forecast of regional groundwater level based on grey Markov chain model[J]. Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering, 2011, 33(zk1): 71-75.
    Citation: ZHU Yan-zhi, CHEN Nan. Dynamic forecast of regional groundwater level based on grey Markov chain model[J]. Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering, 2011, 33(zk1): 71-75.

    Dynamic forecast of regional groundwater level based on grey Markov chain model

    More Information
    • Received Date: April 12, 2011
    • Published Date: November 30, 2011
    • The regional groundwater level is affected by several factors and highly nonlinear. Aiming at unstable change and highly nonlinear characteristics of the regional groundwater level, the grey Markov chain model is presented by means of combining the grey system theory with the dispersed Markov chain theory. The mean and standard deviations of information series are taken as the classification standard of precipitation states. The variance of the regional groundwater level for the past 14 years in the irrigating areas is classified into five classes according to the precipitation data. The predication results show that the model is feasible.
    • [1]
      郑书彦 , 李占斌 , 李喜安 . 地下水动态预测的人工神经网络方法 [J]. 水资源与水工程学报 , 2002, 13 (2): 14 – 16. ( ZHENG Shu-yan, LI Zhan-bin, LI Xi-an. Artificial neural network method for forecast of underground water level [J]. Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering, 2002, 13 (2): 14 – 16. (in Chinese))
      [2]
      薛联青 , 崔广柏 , 程 光 . 区域地下水位预报的季节性神经网络模型 [J]. 水科学进展 , 2002, 13 (4): 473 – 477. ( XUE Lian-qing, CUI Guang-bai, CHENG Guang. Seasonal neural-network forecast model for regional groundwater level [J]. Advance in Water Science, 2002, 13 (4): 473 – 477. (in Chinese))
      [3]
      付中原 , 刘俊民 , 李 丽 , 等 . 人工神经网络在渭北灌区地下水位动态预测中的应用 [J]. 水土保持学报 , 2008, 28 (4): 144 – 146. ( FU Zhong - yuan, LIU Jun - min, LI Li, et al. Application of artificial neural network in dynamic prediction of groundwater level in Weibei irrigation area [J]. Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation , 2008, 28 (4): 144 – 146. (in Chinese))
      [4]
      张 伟 , 徐建华 . 非平稳性地下水动态序列分析及预测 [J]. 工程勘察 , 2000(1): 17 – 19. (ZHANG Wei, XU Jian-hua. Dynamic analysis and prediction of unsteady time series for Groundwater regime [J]. Geotechnical Investigation & Surveying , 2000(1): 17 – 19. (in Chinese))
      [5]
      李希灿 , 梁 勇 , 张庆雷 . 地下水位动态预测的成因模糊综合分析法 [J]. 山东农业大学学报 ( 自然科学版 ), 2001, 32 (1): 39 – 43. ( LI Xi-can, LIANG Yong, ZHANG Qing-le. Method of fuzzy comprehensive causation analysis for underground water level [J]. Journal of Shandong Agricultural University (Natural Science Edition) , 2001, 32 (1): 39 – 43. (in Chinese))
      [6]
      吴东杰 , 王金生 , 腾彦国 . 小波分解与变换法预测地下水位 [J]. 水利学报 , 2004, 35 (5): 39 – 45. ( WU Dong-jie, WANG Jin-sheng, TENG Yan-guo. Application of wavelet decomposition and wavelet transform method to forecasting of groundwater regime [J]. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 2004, 35 (5): 39 – 45. (in Chinese))
      [7]
      王文圣 , 廖 杰 , 丁 晶 . 浅层地下水位预测的小波网络模型 [J]. 土木工程学报 , 2004(12): 62 – 66. (WANG Wen-sheng, LIAO Jie, DING Jing. Wavelet network model for shllow water table prediction[J]. China Civil Engineering Journal, 2004(12): 62 – 66. (in Chinese))
      [8]
      金菊良 , 杨晓华 , 金保明 , 等 . 基于遗传算法的地下水位动态预测双线性模型 [J]. 水科学进展 , 2001, 12 (3): 361 – 366. ( JIN Ju-liang, YANG Xiao-hua, JIN Baoming, et al. A bilinear tim e series model based on genetic algorithm for predicting groundwater level regime [J]. Advance in Water Science, 2001, 12 (3): 361 – 366. (in Chinese))
      [9]
      徐建新 , 张 亮 , 邱 林 , 等 . 用改进的 BP 算法预报灌区地下水位 [J]. 华北水利水电学院学报 , 2003, 24 (1): 1 – 4. ( XU Jian-xin, ZHANG Liang, QIU Lin, et al. Forecast groundwater level in irrigation district based on improved BP algorithm [J]. Journal of North China Institute of Water Conservancy and Hydroelectric Power , 2003, 24 (1): 1 – 4. (in Chinese))
      [10]
      赵新宇 , 费良军 . LM 算法的神经网络在灌区地下水位预测中的应用研究 [J]. 沈阳农业大学报 , 2006, 37 (2): 213 – 216. ( ZHAO Xin-yu, FEI Liang-jun. Irrigation area groundwater table prediction by neural network which based on lm algorithm [J]. Journal of Shenyang Agricultural University , 2006, 37 (2): 213 – 216. (in Chinese)).
      [11]
      盛 骤 , 谢式千 , 潘承毅 . 概率论与数理统计 [M]. 2 版 . 北京 : 高等教育出版社 , 1989. (SHENG Zhou, XIE Shi-qian, PAN Cheng-yi. Probability and mathematical statistics[M]. 2nd ed . Beijing: Higher Education Press, 1989. (in Chinese))
      [12]
      夏乐天 . 梅雨强度指数权马尔可夫链预测 [J]. 水利学报 , 2005, 36 (8): 988 – 993. (XIA Le-tian. Prediction of plum rain intensity based on index weighted Markov Chain[J]. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 2005, 36 (8): 988 – 993.(in Chinese)).
      [13]
      SEN Ze-kai. Critical drought analysis by second order Markov Chain[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 1990, 120 (4): 183 – 202.
      [14]
      冯耀龙 , 韩文秀 . 权马尔可夫链在河流丰枯状况预测中的应用 [J]. 系统工程理论与实践 , 1999, 19 (10): 89 – 93. ( FENG Yao-long, HAN Wen-xiu. The application of weighted Markov-Chain to the prediction of river runoff state [J]. Systems Engineering Theory & Practice, 1999, 19 (10): 89 – 93. (in Chinese)).
      [15]
      刘思峰 , 郭天榜 , 党耀国 . 灰色系统理论及其应用 [M]. 第 2 版 . 北京 : 科学出版社 , 1999. (LIU Shi-feng, GUO Tian-bang, DANG Yaoguo. Theory of grey systems and applications[M]. 2nd ed. Beijing: Science Press, 1999. (in Chinese))
    • Related Articles

      [1]WU Yongxia, SHEN Shuilong. Method for calculating pumping and recharging confined water inside and outside excavations under suspended waterproof curtain[J]. Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering, 2023, 45(9): 1971-1978. DOI: 10.11779/CJGE20220564
      [2]WANG Zhao-lei, WU Xu-jun, PENG Shuai, DU Fu-zhi, ZHAO Wei, JIANG Xiao-guang. Application of rotary drilling occlusive pile in excavation engineering[J]. Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering, 2013, 35(zk2): 1192-1195.
      [3]YU Hui, DING Xuan-ming, KONG Gang-qiang, ZHENG Chang-jie. Comparative FEM analysis of deformation properties of expressway widening projects with cast-in-situ X-shaped concrete piles and circular pile[J]. Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering, 2013, 35(zk2): 170-176.
      [4]ZHANG Min-xia, LIU Han-long, DING Xuan-ming, WANG Zhi-qiang. Comparative tests on bearing capacity of cast-in-situ X-shaped concrete piles and circular pile[J]. Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering, 2011, 33(9): 1469-1476.
      [5]DONG Jinrong. Enhanced and weakened effect of skin friction of cast-in-situ piles[J]. Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering, 2009, 31(5): 658-662.
      [6]DONG Jinrong. Analysis on uplift resistance of cast-in-situ piles with large diameter[J]. Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering, 2009, 31(2): 254-258.
      [7]LIAO Shaoming, ZHOU Xueling, SONG Bo, LI Wenlin, FAN Yaoyao. Study on the bending performance of secant pile retaining wall[J]. Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering, 2008, 30(1): 72-78.
      [8]GAO Junhe, LIU Guonan. In situ test and construction of two-shot grouting for waterproof of man-hole-pile[J]. Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering, 2003, 25(4): 479-482.
      [9]Wang Min. Treatment for the accident of hand-dug cast-in-situ pile foundation[J]. Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering, 1998, 20(2): 63-65.
      [10]Mu Yuwei, Wang Rizhong. The Test and Research of Small Bored Cast-in-situ piles[J]. Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering, 1983, 5(1): 27-42.

    Catalog

      Article views PDF downloads Cited by()
      Related

      /

      DownLoad:  Full-Size Img  PowerPoint
      Return
      Return