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徐加宝, 张泽超, 张璐璐, 曹子君, 王宇, 张一凡, 张德, 陈杨明. 基于贝叶斯理论和条件协同模拟的海上风电场土体参数空间变异性表征[J]. 岩土工程学报. DOI: 10.11779/CJGE20221585
引用本文: 徐加宝, 张泽超, 张璐璐, 曹子君, 王宇, 张一凡, 张德, 陈杨明. 基于贝叶斯理论和条件协同模拟的海上风电场土体参数空间变异性表征[J]. 岩土工程学报. DOI: 10.11779/CJGE20221585
Spatial variability characterization of soil properties in offshore wind farm based on the Bayesian theory and conditional co-simulation method[J]. Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering. DOI: 10.11779/CJGE20221585
Citation: Spatial variability characterization of soil properties in offshore wind farm based on the Bayesian theory and conditional co-simulation method[J]. Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering. DOI: 10.11779/CJGE20221585

基于贝叶斯理论和条件协同模拟的海上风电场土体参数空间变异性表征

Spatial variability characterization of soil properties in offshore wind farm based on the Bayesian theory and conditional co-simulation method

  • 摘要: 海上风电场土体参数的空间变异性表征对海上风电工程具有重要意义,多源土体参数融合可降低表征结果的不确定性。然而,现有方法无法利用非同位多源土体参数数据,且不考虑统计不确定性对空间变异性表征的影响。为此,提出了基于贝叶斯理论的条件协同模拟方法,该方法根据非同位多源土体参数数据,利用贝叶斯理论估计交叉变异函数,再利用条件协同模拟方法生成大量土体参数空间分布的模拟样本,表征参数空间变异性,表征过程中合理地考虑模型参数的统计不确定性。以某海上风电场为工程背景,利用提出的方法融合无侧限抗压强度(qu)和标准贯入试验(SPT)击数N值,表征qu的空间变异性。结果表明:提出的方法可以根据有限非同位的qu和N值数据,表征qu的空间变异性,合理地反映了有限数据条件下统计不确定性的影响。此外,利用强信息先验分布或者融合标准贯入数据,可以降低变异函数模型参数统计不确定性和条件协同模拟结果的不确定性。

     

    Abstract: Spatial variability characterization of soil properties in offshore wind farm is essential for offshore engineering. Multi-source data fusion can reduce the uncertainty of characterization. However, existing methods cannot simulate geotechnical properties based on non-co-located multi-source data, and do not consider the effects of statistical uncertainty. To overcome these challenges, a conditional co-simulation method based on Bayesian theory is proposed. The Bayesian theory is first used to estimate the cross-variogram model based on non-co-located multi-source data. Then, the conditional co-simulation is used to generate realizations of spatial varied soil properties, which can characterize the spatial variability with consideration of statistical uncertainty. The proposed method is applied to an offshore wind farm to build the spatial variability model of unconfined compression strength (qu) by integrating data on qu and standard penetration test (SPT) N value. The results show that the proposed method can characterize the spatial variability of qu from non-co-located data on qu and N value, and statistical uncertainty is properly taken into account. In addition, it is shown that the uncertainties of the variogram models and conditional co-simulation results can be reduced when the prior distribution with more information and/or SPT data is used.

     

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